Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Happy Birthday, Asher!

Asher turned three today. The party's on Sunday, but we've scattered a few gems throughout the week.

  • On Monday, he got his first tricycle. "I have a bicycle because it's my birthday," he shouted to everyone he passed that day.

  • This morning, we sang happy birthday to him while Leah threw Cheerios.

  • My parents are coming in from Illinois tomorrow.

    Happy Birthday, kiddo. This year's going to be a great one for you!


  • Thursday, February 14, 2008

    Blah

    A few friends have complained about my lack of blogging. Apparently, it's the preferred method of staying "in touch" for some of those crazy West Coast folks.

    Part of the reason I've laid off lately has been that I've been crazy busy, of course. But perhaps moreso, I feel like if I put the proverbial pen to paper, I will have to acknowledge that my life is largely a boring, monotonous cliche these days:

    I work. A lot. And don't seem to get much done.

    School is (once again) unsatisfying. Though, this semester's class at least holds the promise of being less time consuming.

    I have kids. They're cute. They also require a lot of care and feeding.

    I have a wife. We exchange hurried conversations, smiles, and the occasional embrace seconds before one of us drops from exhaustion.

    I'm still trying to buy a house. Current candidate is mired in "estate issues" that involve squabbling siblings, lost wills and real estate agents of questionable integrity.


    I think I really need a long vacation. It's been two years since I've had one.

    Tuesday, February 05, 2008

    Wait For It... Wait For It...

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    Sunday, February 03, 2008

    Never Ask Me Again What's Going On With The Democratic Nomination

    In the run up to Super Tuesday, the media has coalesced around five priorities for both Senators Obama and Clinton: (1) Each needs to project momentum. (2) Both have been saddled with the paradox of backing off aggressive rhetoric while still managing to sharply define their differences. (3) With the shift from retail to national politics, quantity/quality of surrogates and airtime is more important than policy discussions. (4) Win over Edwards supporters. (5) Rack up delegates, cuz next Tuesday ain’t going to decide it.

    The funny thing about momentum is that the media talks about it as though they simply report rather than generate and define it. In Clinton’s case, the press has boxed “momentum” into her ability to position Florida as the canary in the coal mine. She won more decisively among Whites, beat Obama in the younger demos, shored up the older voters, and took a slightly bigger piece of African Americans. The Clinton campaign largely lost that battle for “the big mo” in the first 24 hours after the Florida primary, but has gained some ground in subsequent days by forcing at least a bit of discussion about whether or not to seat the Florida delegates.

    Obama’s momentum is more of a multi-pronged beast, with the media pushing narratives of success in South Carolina, Inspiration/Camelot, a glut of high-profile endorsements (specifically Ted/Caroline and the red state senators and governors), record fundraising in January, and tightening poll numbers in both key states (California, New York) and nationally. All of these are being coaxed along, of course, by the Obama campaign (Plouffe, Axelrod, etc) in process stories, though not generally made explicit by Obama (thank “JoeMentum” for killing that tactic).

    On the fight/don’t fight paradox, there appears to be universal agreement that the Clinton campaign needs to tone it down. With Obama, the media says two things – often in the same breath: He needs to stay above the fray/look “Presidential,” but also show that he can really mix it up so that voters don’t think he’d get steamrolled in the General. Both candidates seem to be tacking pretty close to this advice. Much to the surprise of the cynics, Bill Clinton has kept largely quiet since his post-South Carolina Jessie Jackson comment (although has been attacking Obama surrogates, notably Senator Kennedy for his support of No Child Left Behind). Hillary Clinton has passed on a few Grand-Canyon-sized opportunities to attack Obama, and there have been no Sheehan- or Bob-Johnson-like smears SO FAR.

    Obama on the other hand, has been cool and collected during the larger press and campaign events while his surrogates (Plouffe, Kennedy) have taken thinly veiled jabs at Clinton. Perhaps the most interesting manifestation of Obama’s “fight” motif though, was a few sarcastic cracks he aimed at McCain during a campaign stop in Albuquerque. New polls out in the back half of the week showed Obama falling considerably behind Clinton in the “strongest leader” category (a result of the pre-S.C. chicanery from the Clinton camp?), so look for him to come out with more aggressive rhetoric in the final 72 hours before the voting starts.

    When it comes to surrogates and airtime, Obama has it down pat. Not only have his volunteer spokespeople been high profile and actively engaged, but they also reinforce his message of unity and electability. McGaskill, Conrad, etc. all hail from traditionally red States with small African-American populations. His campaign has purchased television advertising in 21 of 22 states, with different messages in different markets.

    With the exception of her husband and outspoken California Congresswoman Maxine Waters, the press has largely ignored Senator Clinton’s endorsements – even those from the remainder of the Kennedy family. Her television advertising is similar to Obama’s in scope.

    Before we move on to Edwards supporters and delegate grubbing, its worth noting that both candidates have ignored press assumptions that policy falls by the wayside in the final days before Super Tuesday. The final debate was a wonk’s wet dream, and campaign stops on both sides have been marked as much by substantive discussions as by out-and-out rallies (though it’s the latter that the media reports).

    In death as in life, Edwards’ rhetoric continues to push the Obama and Clinton camps toward more progressive territory. Each has mentioned him (respectfully, endearingly) by name several times. Clinton even composed a love song to him, written special for the CNN debate. The press goes back and forth – and discusses how they go back and forth – on whether Edwards’ exit means good things for Obama (progressive rhetoric) or Clinton (white voters), though everyone knows its anyone’s game.

    Finally, the least sexy, but most interesting, part of the coverage and tactics in the week prior to Super Tuesday has been the realization that the nomination will not be decided come Wednesday morning. Neither camp expects a blow-out, and both have the funds to continue on. Accordingly, the Clinton campaign has been very active in Obama’s home state of Illinois, as has Obama in New York. Five or six delegates may make a big difference.

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