Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Primaries Prediction

On the Democratic side, it's going all the way to the convention. Clinton will have more delegates, but not the number needed to win the nomination. Edwards will play kingmaker.

On the Republican side, it's McCain.

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2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Curious - has there ever been a primary with no clear winner? What if Edwards does not give up his delegates? What happens then? Just wondering.

11:37 AM  
Blogger isaacjosephson said...

The last brokered convention was back in 1952, I believe. That's when there's no winner after the first ballot, and some backroom horsetrading goes on - promises in exchange for delegates.

In 1976, the Republicans went into their convention without a clear winner. Ford pulled it out (from Reagan) in the end on the first ballot by some shrewd patronage and through a Reagan misstep.

12:09 PM  

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